APG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APG - APi Group Corporation
$41.66
-0.68 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-1.28%
30d:
-5.62%
90d:
+1.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APG appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 69% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.73
29.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APG is currently trading at $41.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.35 to $43.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.4) compared to its historical average (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 68.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.20 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $53.20 (+27.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$41.35 -
$43.43
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.7% below Wall St target ($53.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.35 -
$43.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.86
Resistance Level
$44.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.44
Wall Street Target
$53.20
(+27.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.8%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.4 vs 27.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.54
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$35.65
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$32.97
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→27)
$41.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 71.2%)
$142.82
(+243%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.4, Growth: 71.2%)
$140.60
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.2, Growth: 71.2%)
$119.51
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.4 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$52.65
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 2:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin E Franklin
SELL
3000000 shares
2026-03-19
Ian G H Ashken
SELL
72546 shares
2026-03-04
James E Lillie
SELL
83629 shares
2026-03-04
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APG price and gamma walls.
