APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$172.22
-4.10 (-2.33%)
▼
5d:
+5.8%
30d:
+17.68%
90d:
+36.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
19d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: APH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.36
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $172.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.00 to $165.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 30.1) is in line with its historical norms (28.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.21, while resistance sits at $178.52.
Market Sentiment: APH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $156.21, while resistance sits at $178.52.
Market Sentiment: APH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$145.00 -
$165.09
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($184.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$145.00 -
$165.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.21
Resistance Level
$178.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.12
Wall Street Target
$184.00
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
58.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 28.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$178.48
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$181.69
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$171.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 18.7%)
$288.21
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.7%)
$208.41
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 18.7%)
$177.15
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 35.46 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.86
Bull Case
$207.96
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 37.2
Base Case
$172.22
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 35.5
Bear Case
$131.75
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 01, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Adam Norwitt
SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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