COST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COST - Costco Wholesale Corp
$961.83
7.56 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
-4.17%
30d:
-5.03%
90d:
-4.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.8/10
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11 traders called COST this week
79% bullish • 3 bearish
79% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$799.28
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$496.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COST is currently trading at $961.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $977.45 to $1048.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.5) is in line with its historical norms (44.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 45.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $936.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1083.97 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COST is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $936.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $1083.97 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$977.45 -
$1048.56
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($1083.97)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$977.45 -
$1048.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$936.51
Resistance Level
$1089.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.45
Wall Street Target
$1083.97
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.5%
Profit Margin
3.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.5 vs 44.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$949.33
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$936.98
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$924.80
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→44)
$960.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.4, Growth: 10.3%)
$1290.40
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 10.3%)
$666.10
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 10.3%)
$566.18
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (42x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 52.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.27
Bull Case
$1293.48
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 57.3
Base Case
$1175.89
(+18%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 52.1
Bear Case
$682.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 44.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.4 to 44.1
Stabilization Target:
$999.33
(+3.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Claudine Adamo
SELL
730 shares
2026-03-09
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-30
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