TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$149.35
4.86 (3.36%)
▲
5d:
+6.42%
30d:
+14.7%
90d:
+15.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.97
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $149.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.41 to $142.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $150.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: TGT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$131.41 -
$142.77
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($135.34)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.6% growth with 6.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$131.41 -
$142.77
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.55
Resistance Level
$150.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$135.34
(-9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-24.7%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 15.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$162.19
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$176.14
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$191.29
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$149.76
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$181.03
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 4.5%)
$170.67
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$133.61
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.57
Bull Case
$160.45
(+7%)
Analyst growth 1.0%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$145.87
(-2%)
Market implied 1.0%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$98.25
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
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