WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$110.71
-0.49 (-0.44%)
▼
5d:
-0.92%
30d:
-1.01%
90d:
-15.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $110.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.29 to $114.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.3) is in line with its historical norms (40.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $106.79, while resistance sits at $116.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.02 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $106.79, while resistance sits at $116.03.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $138.02 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$110.29 -
$114.40
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($138.02)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.29 -
$114.40
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.79
Resistance Level
$116.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.33
Wall Street Target
$138.02
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
37.3 vs 40.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.39
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$104.17
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$101.04
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→41)
$110.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$157.16
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.4%)
$87.27
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 12.4%)
$74.18
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$130.84
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 44.1
Base Case
$118.95
(+7%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 40.1
Bear Case
$75.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 37.3 to 40.9
Stabilization Target:
$121.30
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-04-23
Christopher James Nichol…
SELL
2900 shares
2026-04-16
John R Furner
SELL
13125 shares
2026-04-16
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