CRTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CRTO - Criteo S.A.
$17.14
-0.56 (-3.16%)
▼
5d:
+0.53%
30d:
+6.72%
90d:
-4.88%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CRTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CRTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.86
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CRTO is currently trading at $17.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.44 to $18.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.8) is in line with its historical norms (4.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.64 (+43.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRTO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.64 (+43.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.44 -
$18.04
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.7% below Wall St target ($24.64)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.44 -
$18.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.80
Resistance Level
$18.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.82
Wall Street Target
$24.64
(+43.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-77.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 4.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.87
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$16.60
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$16.33
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$17.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$122.23
(+613%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: 7.7%)
$21.42
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.2, Growth: 7.7%)
$18.21
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$38.94
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$35.40
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$12.04
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.8 to 4.0
Stabilization Target:
$17.96
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 9:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CRTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Der Kooi Frederik Van
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
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