Ellington Credit (EARN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EARN - Ellington Credit Company
$3.46
0.13 (3.90%)
▲
5d:
+1.47%
30d:
-18.78%
90d:
-20.28%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 18, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EARN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EARN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.53
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.67
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EARN is currently trading at $3.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.57 to $4.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.1) compared to its historical average (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 69.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EARN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.22, while resistance sits at $4.05. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: EARN scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EARN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.22, while resistance sits at $4.05. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: EARN scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.00 (+44.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.57 -
$4.32
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($5.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.57 -
$4.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.22
Resistance Level
$4.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.15
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
69.8%
Profit Margin
-81.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.2 vs 4.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.11
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.80
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.52
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→4)
$3.53
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$32.87
(+850%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.1, Growth: 14.6%)
$5.21
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.7, Growth: 14.6%)
$4.42
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.1 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$4.84
(+39.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 18, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EARN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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