EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.18
-0.45 (-1.47%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.11%
30d:
-3.21%
90d:
-3.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: EPRT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: EPRT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.62
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.58 to $32.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.1) is in line with its historical norms (22.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.06 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$30.58 -
$32.43
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($37.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.58 -
$32.43
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.08
Resistance Level
$32.35
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.15
Wall Street Target
$37.06
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 22.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$30.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$29.81
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â23)
$30.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$33.63
(+10%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$30.71
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 3.2%)
$26.10
(-15%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$36.11
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$32.83
(+7%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$20.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 22.8
Stabilization Target:
$31.52
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 4:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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