EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$25.37
0.32 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
-2.05%
30d:
-12.82%
90d:
-19.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EPRT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.82
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $25.37, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.76 to $29.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.3) compared to its historical average (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.15 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.15 (+42.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.76 -
$29.15
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 42.5% below Wall St target ($36.15)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.76 -
$29.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.62
Resistance Level
$26.61
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.34
Wall Street Target
$36.15
(+42.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 22.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.77
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$22.27
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$20.87
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$25.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.2%)
$30.22
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 3.2%)
$27.90
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 3.2%)
$23.72
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.29
Bull Case
$29.43
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$26.76
(+7%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$16.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.85
(+21.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 09, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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