EPRT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EPRT - Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.
$30.35
-0.44 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
-2.94%
90d:
-8.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EPRT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.48
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EPRT is currently trading at $30.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.24 to $31.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.10 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EPRT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: EPRT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.10 (+22.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.24 -
$31.38
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($37.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.24 -
$31.38
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.46
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.68
Wall Street Target
$37.10
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
43.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 22.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.80
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$29.27
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$28.74
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→23)
$30.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 4.5%)
$35.00
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$34.61
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$29.42
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$36.71
(+19%)
Analyst growth 10.2%, PE expands to 26.2
Base Case
$33.37
(+8%)
Market implied 10.2%, PE stable at 23.8
Bear Case
$20.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.7 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$32.06
(+5.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 11, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EPRT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
A Joseph Peil
SELL
19657 shares
2026-03-20
Robert Webb Salisbury
SELL
5851 shares
2026-03-20
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