ESNT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ESNT - Essent Group LTD
$58.93
0.48 (0.82%)
▲
5d:
+0.94%
30d:
-5.03%
90d:
+3.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESNT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ESNT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$81.35
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ESNT is currently trading at $58.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $57.32 to $60.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $55.34, while resistance sits at $60.75.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.75 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ESNT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $55.34, while resistance sits at $60.75.
Market Sentiment: ESNT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $67.75 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$57.32 -
$60.89
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($67.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$57.32 -
$60.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.34
Resistance Level
$60.75
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.63
Wall Street Target
$67.75
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.7%
Profit Margin
53.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.81
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$56.71
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$55.63
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$59.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.8%)
$204.69
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 6.8%)
$71.72
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 6.8%)
$60.96
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.03
Bull Case
$70.63
(+20%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$64.21
(+9%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$39.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$62.55
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ESNT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
7628 shares
2026-04-20
Mary Lourdes Gibbons
SELL
872 shares
2026-04-17
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