HLF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLF - Herbalife Ltd.
$11.82
-0.15 (-1.25%)
▼
5d:
+4.6%
30d:
-7.87%
90d:
-23.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLF trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.86
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.30
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLF is currently trading at $11.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.54 to $13.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.8) compared to its historical average (5.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.18, while resistance sits at $12.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+55.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLF is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.18, while resistance sits at $12.72.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.33 (+55.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.54 -
$13.04
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.1% below Wall St target ($18.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.54 -
$13.04
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.18
Resistance Level
$12.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.75
Wall Street Target
$18.33
(+55.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 5.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.69
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.66
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$8.73
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$11.88
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.5%)
$117.08
(+891%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.7, Growth: 19.5%)
$20.15
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.2, Growth: 19.5%)
$17.13
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$18.21
(+54%)
Analyst growth 38.3%, PE expands to 5.8
Base Case
$16.55
(+40%)
Market implied 38.3%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$8.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.7 to 5.1
Stabilization Target:
$16.08
(+36.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 10:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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