INGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INGR - Ingredion Incorporated
$103.75
-0.92 (-0.88%)
▼
5d:
+0.45%
30d:
+5.65%
90d:
-2.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$139.21
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INGR is currently trading at $103.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $99.14 to $103.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.50 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $106.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.50 (+17.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$99.14 -
$103.36
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($121.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$99.14 -
$103.36
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.72
Resistance Level
$106.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.14
Wall Street Target
$121.50
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.02
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$102.30
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$101.59
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$103.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.4%)
$284.45
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$128.54
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$109.26
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.20
Bull Case
$142.03
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.4%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$129.12
(+25%)
Market implied 23.4%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$71.18
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 9.3
Stabilization Target:
$105.54
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 6:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is INGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jorge A Uribe
SELL
1 shares
2026-03-31
Davida Marie Gable
SELL
375 shares
2026-03-18
James P Zallie
SELL
9958 shares
2026-02-18
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