Ingredion (INGR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
INGR - Ingredion Incorporated
$95.09
-0.02 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
-5.97%
90d:
-4.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: INGR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.03
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: INGR is currently trading at $95.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.54 to $99.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $93.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INGR scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.83 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, INGR is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $93.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: INGR scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $120.83 (+27.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$95.54 -
$99.88
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($120.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.54 -
$99.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.72
Resistance Level
$97.83
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.44
Wall Street Target
$120.83
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.24
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$89.47
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$86.79
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$94.57
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$275.57
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$117.15
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$99.58
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.19
Bull Case
$128.22
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$116.56
(+23%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$64.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$103.62
(+9.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 7:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:00 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is INGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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