John B. Sanfilippo & SON (JBSS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JBSS - John B. Sanfilippo & SON
$66.11
-0.63 (-0.94%)
▼
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
-3.56%
90d:
-16.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JBSS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JBSS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.73
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JBSS is currently trading at $66.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $66.61 to $69.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JBSS scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.00 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JBSS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $65.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: JBSS scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $100.00 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$66.61 -
$69.26
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.3% below Wall St target ($100.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$66.61 -
$69.26
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.40
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.76
Resistance Level
$69.27
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.92
Wall Street Target
$100.00
(+51.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.5%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.66
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$63.23
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$61.84
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$66.24
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$141.92
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 5.7%)
$78.06
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 5.7%)
$66.35
(+0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.26
Bull Case
$84.47
(+28%)
Analyst growth 15.1%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$76.80
(+16%)
Market implied 15.1%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$45.38
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$70.81
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 16, 2026 8:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JBSS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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