KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$51.26
-0.31 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
+8.72%
30d:
+38.28%
90d:
+22.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 17, 2026
3d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: KMX is 9.7% above its trading range ($46.71). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: KMX is 9.7% above its trading range ($46.71). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.55
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $51.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.46 to $46.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $42.31. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KMX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $42.31. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$37.46 -
$46.71
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
KMX is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 17.5% above Wall St target ($42.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 9.4% growth with -1.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.46 -
$46.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.08
Resistance Level
$49.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.47
Wall Street Target
$42.31
(-17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.2%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.4% premium
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 15.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$56.08
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$61.35
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$67.12
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$51.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$44.87
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: -6.5%)
$41.91
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: -6.5%)
$31.94
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$84.55
(+65%)
Analyst growth 49.0%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$76.86
(+50%)
Market implied 49.0%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$35.07
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 13, 2026 7:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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