What is the fair value of KMX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for KMX to be between $53.78 and $59.35. The current price is $58.18.

What is the analyst price target for KMX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for KMX is $54.85. This implies a potential upside of -5.7% from current levels.

KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KMX - CarMax Inc.

RETAIL-AUTO DEALERS & GASOLINE STATIONS

$58.18

-0.60 (-1.02%) ▼

5d: +1.17%

30d: +6.03%

90d: +48.87%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 24, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $58.18 · last confirmed Aug 11, 2026

Strength: 5.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: KMX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 11.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -6.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$39.36

Based on -1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$24.44

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $58.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.78 to $59.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.2) compared to its historical average (16.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.22, while resistance sits at $61.15.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $53.78 - $59.35

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 61.4%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($54.85)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.5% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $53.78 - $59.35

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $56.22

Resistance Level $61.15

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 23.23

Wall Street Target $54.85 (-5.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -5.2%

Profit Margin 0.8%

Valuation Premium vs History +11.5% premium

PE vs Historical 23.2 vs 16.8 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +11.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $64.87 (+12%)

2-Year Target $72.33 (+24%)

3-Year Target $80.65 (+39%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 23→17) PE COMPRESSION $58.31 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 23.2, Growth: -6.5%) $47.57 (+-18%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -6.5%) $41.41 (-29%)

Bear: (PE: 16.8, Growth: -6.5%) $34.39 (-41%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 36.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63

Bull Case $99.33 (+71%)

Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 39.7

Base Case $90.30 (+55%)

Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 36.1

Bear Case $39.97 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 12, 2026 7:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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