CarMax (KMX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$52.61
-1.18 (-2.19%)
▼
5d:
-4.21%
30d:
-13.07%
90d:
-4.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $56.36 · last confirmed Oct 7, 2026
Strength: 7.9/10
Get Alerted When KMX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: KMX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$42.64
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $52.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $55.21 to $61.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (18.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KMX scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.62 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $52.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: KMX scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.62 (+19.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$55.21 -
$61.03
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KMX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($62.62)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$55.21 -
$61.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.36
Resistance Level
$63.67
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.01
Wall Street Target
$62.62
(+19.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
81.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 18.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.19
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$57.89
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$60.73
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$52.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: -6.5%)
$43.01
(+-18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$40.66
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$34.56
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.11
Bull Case
$70.22
(+34%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$63.83
(+21%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$36.58
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto & Truck Dealerships by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CVNA
Carvana Co |
BUY
24 analysts |
$83 | 67 BUY |
|
BGSI
Boyd Group Services Inc. |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$148 | 63 BUY |
|
MCW
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Co… |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$7 | 58 HOLD |
|
AN
AutoNation Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$244 | 54 HOLD |
|
CWH
Camping World Holdings I… |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$10 | 51 HOLD |
Advanced KMX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMX price and gamma walls.
