LUV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LUV - Southwest Airlines Co.
$40.87
-1.47 (-3.47%)
▼
5d:
-6.43%
30d:
+6.57%
90d:
-13.32%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.5/10
Get Alerted When LUV Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LUV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LUV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.58
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LUV is currently trading at $40.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.28 to $42.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 50.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LUV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.44, while resistance sits at $44.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: LUV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.64 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LUV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.44, while resistance sits at $44.44. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: LUV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.64 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$38.28 -
$42.04
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LUV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.64)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.28 -
$42.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.44
Resistance Level
$44.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.03
Wall Street Target
$45.64
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.8%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.62
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$36.50
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$34.49
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$40.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 67.9%)
$334.82
(+719%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 67.9%)
$137.94
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 67.9%)
$117.25
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.50
Bull Case
$96.10
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.0
Base Case
$87.36
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.1
Bear Case
$29.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$48.45
(+18.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 04, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is LUV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa M Atherton
SELL
118 shares
2026-04-07
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-06
Top Rated Airlines Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Airlines by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
UAL
United Airlines Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$130 | 60 BUY |
|
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 60 HOLD |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group |
BUY
26 analysts |
$15 | 60 BUY |
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$57 | 57 HOLD |
|
CPA
Copa Holdings SA |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$164 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced LUV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LUV price and gamma walls.
