LUV
Southwest Airlines Co.
AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Southwest Airlines (LUV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$44.94
-0.29 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
+1.1%
30d:
+10.07%
90d:
+3.67%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
Protect LUV Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$40.45 – $44.89
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
FAIR
vs 10.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$50.01
+11.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$43.43 / $47.01
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: LUV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.84
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.44
12.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LUV is currently trading at $44.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.45 to $44.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LUV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.43, while resistance sits at $47.01.
Market Sentiment: LUV scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.01 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LUV is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $43.43, while resistance sits at $47.01.
Market Sentiment: LUV scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.01 (+11.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.45 -
$44.89
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$40.45 -
$44.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$43.43
Resistance Level
$47.01
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($50.01)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.78
Wall Street Target
$50.01
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
450.0%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.84
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$46.76
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$47.69
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 51.3%)
$279.53
(+522%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 51.3%)
$151.67
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 51.3%)
$128.92
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$99.51
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$90.46
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$30.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LUV)
Bearish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 17, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits is driven by speculation about potential buyout offers for $JBLU, with $LUV mentioned in relation to Elon Musk's tweet. No new news articles were available.
Key Retail Themes:
potential buyout activity in the airline sector
speculation about specific companies
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LUV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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