Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$48.92
-0.88 (-1.77%)
▼
5d:
-2.06%
30d:
-7.66%
90d:
+2.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MBIN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MBIN is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.15
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $48.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.02 to $52.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+30.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.00 (+30.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$50.02 -
$52.89
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.8% below Wall St target ($64.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.02 -
$52.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.01
Resistance Level
$53.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.14
Wall Street Target
$64.00
(+30.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.21
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$49.51
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$49.81
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.95
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.5%)
$161.24
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$66.09
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 10.5%)
$56.17
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$65.68
(+34%)
Analyst growth 20.7%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$59.71
(+22%)
Market implied 20.7%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$33.65
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 7:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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