MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$54.85
0.41 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
-1.26%
30d:
+12.91%
90d:
+20.05%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MBIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MBIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$65.47
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $54.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.56 to $54.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (7.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.89, while resistance sits at $56.72.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.89, while resistance sits at $56.72.
Market Sentiment: MBIN scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$47.56 -
$54.19
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.50)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.2% growth expectation is conservative given 147% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.56 -
$54.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.89
Resistance Level
$56.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.09
Wall Street Target
$56.50
(+3.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
146.7%
Profit Margin
42.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 7.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$57.28
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$60.25
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$63.39
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$54.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.0%)
$161.48
(+197%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 10.0%)
$72.55
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 10.0%)
$61.67
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.98
Bull Case
$71.46
(+31%)
Analyst growth 20.3%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$64.96
(+19%)
Market implied 20.3%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$36.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 12, 2026 4:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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