MBIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MBIN - Merchants Bancorp Common Stock
$50.11
0.55 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
+5.47%
30d:
+11.16%
90d:
+20.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MBIN trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MBIN trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.36
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MBIN is currently trading at $50.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.29 to $48.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (7.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MBIN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $50.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MBIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.29 -
$48.20
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.29 -
$48.20
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.46
Resistance Level
$50.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.80
Wall Street Target
$51.67
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.5%
Profit Margin
39.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 7.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.57
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$55.14
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$57.84
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 11.2%)
$171.67
(+243%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$68.89
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 11.2%)
$58.56
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.10
Bull Case
$76.42
(+53%)
Analyst growth 38.9%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$69.47
(+39%)
Market implied 38.9%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$34.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 13, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MBIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Martin A Schroeter
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-10
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