VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$13.41
-0.35 (-2.54%)
▼
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
-0.37%
90d:
+6.6%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.67
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.70
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $13.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.17 to $13.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.87, while resistance sits at $13.84.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.75 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.87, while resistance sits at $13.84.
Market Sentiment: VLY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.75 (+14.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$13.17 -
$13.68
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.17 -
$13.68
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.87
Resistance Level
$13.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$15.75
(+14.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
33.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.80
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$13.84
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$13.88
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 19.4%)
$57.38
(+317%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 19.4%)
$23.42
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 19.4%)
$19.91
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$20.79
(+52%)
Analyst growth 38.6%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$18.90
(+38%)
Market implied 38.6%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$9.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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