VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$14.50
0.21 (1.47%)
▲
5d:
+1.05%
30d:
-0.62%
90d:
+7.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.09
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.96
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $14.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.40 to $14.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.67 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.67 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$14.40 -
$14.83
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.40 -
$14.83
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.01
Resistance Level
$14.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.46
Wall Street Target
$16.67
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
34.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.75
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.00
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$15.25
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.9%)
$54.72
(+277%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 19.9%)
$24.98
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 19.9%)
$21.24
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$20.41
(+41%)
Analyst growth 29.8%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$18.55
(+28%)
Market implied 29.8%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$9.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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