Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$12.82
0.15 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
-1.99%
30d:
-7.17%
90d:
-13.32%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VLY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.68
Based on 12.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.32
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $12.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.02 to $13.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.30, while resistance sits at $13.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.57 (+29.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.30, while resistance sits at $13.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.57 (+29.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.02 -
$13.99
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.3% below Wall St target ($16.57)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.02 -
$13.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.31
Resistance Level
$13.66
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$16.57
(+29.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
34.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.49
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$12.16
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$11.85
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$12.80
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.8%)
$55.33
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 20.8%)
$22.59
(+76%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 20.8%)
$19.20
(+50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$18.18
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.4%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$16.52
(+29%)
Market implied 30.4%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$8.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$13.85
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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