VLY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$14.58
0.03 (0.21%)
▲
5d:
-1.95%
30d:
+1.18%
90d:
+11.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.34
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $14.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.12 to $14.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.40 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.12 -
$14.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.12 -
$14.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.38
Resistance Level
$14.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.51
Wall Street Target
$16.40
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
58.1%
Profit Margin
33.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.84
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.14
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$15.44
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.46
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.0%)
$56.17
(+286%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 19.0%)
$24.51
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 19.0%)
$20.84
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$22.21
(+53%)
Analyst growth 37.9%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$20.19
(+39%)
Market implied 37.9%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$9.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 4:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carlos J Vazquez
BUY
2500 shares
2026-02-17
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