Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$13.80
-0.05 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
-0.72%
30d:
-7.57%
90d:
-4.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VLY shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.57
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.25
9.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $13.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.82 to $14.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.82 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.09. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 77/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.82 (+21.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.82 -
$14.75
Company Quality Score
73/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (77/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.9% below Wall St target ($16.82)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 77/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.82 -
$14.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.35
Resistance Level
$14.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.95
Wall Street Target
$16.82
(+21.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
34.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.76
(0%)
2-Year Target
$13.72
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.68
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$13.75
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.5%)
$54.45
(+295%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 20.5%)
$24.16
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 20.5%)
$20.54
(+49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$19.91
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.7%, PE expands to 12.9
Base Case
$18.10
(+31%)
Market implied 30.7%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$9.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$13.88
(+0.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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