Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$14.38
-0.02 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+2.28%
30d:
+15.87%
90d:
-4.2%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
Protect VLY Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (27%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$12.74 – $14.30
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.4x
FAIR
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$17.04
+18.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$13.86 / $14.90
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VLY shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.01
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $14.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.74 to $14.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.86, while resistance sits at $14.89.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.04 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $13.86, while resistance sits at $14.89.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.04 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.74 -
$14.30
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.74 -
$14.30
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$13.86
Resistance Level
$14.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.04)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.39
Wall Street Target
$17.04
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.6%
Profit Margin
35.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.60
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.81
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$15.04
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$49.73
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$23.51
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 17.8%)
$19.99
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$19.25
(+34%)
Analyst growth 21.5%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$17.50
(+22%)
Market implied 21.5%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$9.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VLY)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Apr 24, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor on StockTwits expresses a bullish outlook on $VLY, citing potential buyout prospects. Valley National Bancorp reported Q1 net income of $164 million, with three strategic priorities: strengthening the funding franchise, pursuing relationship-focused loan growth, and improving scalability and operating leverage.
Key Retail Themes:
buyout prospects
earnings report and strategic priorities
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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