Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLY - Valley National Bancorp
$14.06
0.25 (1.81%)
▲
5d:
+11.06%
30d:
+8.49%
90d:
-2.02%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VLY is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.88
Based on 12.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.45
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLY is currently trading at $14.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.54 to $13.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.50 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.14. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VLY scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.50 (+17.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.54 -
$13.47
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VLY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($16.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.54 -
$13.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.26
Resistance Level
$14.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.10
Wall Street Target
$16.50
(+17.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
34.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.13
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$14.20
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$14.27
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.11
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.0%)
$54.34
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 21.0%)
$24.90
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 21.0%)
$21.17
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.19
Bull Case
$18.59
(+35%)
Analyst growth 29.8%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$16.90
(+22%)
Market implied 29.8%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$8.85
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLY price and gamma walls.
