Is MCHP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MCHP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MCHP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MCHP to be between $73.51 and $79.85. The current price is $71.41.

What is the analyst price target for MCHP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MCHP is $108.64. This implies a potential upside of 52.1% from current levels.

MCHP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MCHP - Microchip Technology Inc

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$71.41

-2.04 (-2.78%) ▼

5d: -2.84%

30d: -5.07%

90d: -26.35%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your MCHP Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 25, 2026 at $73.86 · last confirmed Sep 1, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MCHP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$129.61

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$80.48

11.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MCHP is currently trading at $71.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.51 to $79.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (32.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MCHP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $70.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.64 (+52.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $73.51 - $79.85

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 52.1% below Wall St target ($108.64)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $73.51 - $79.85

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $70.45

Resistance Level $79.75

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 26.82

Wall Street Target $108.64 (+52.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 38.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -81.6%

Profit Margin 9.3%

Valuation Discount vs History -6.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 26.8 vs 32.9 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -6.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $66.70 (-7%)

2-Year Target $62.29 (-13%)

3-Year Target $58.18 (-19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 27→33) $71.37 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 26.8, Growth: 69.7%) $241.01 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 69.7%) $180.60 (+153%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 69.7%) $153.51 (+115%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 20.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.49

Bull Case $86.23 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.5

Base Case $71.41 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.5

Bear Case $54.63 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.8 to 32.9

Stabilization Target: $87.59 (+22.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +22.7%

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Last updated: September 01, 2026 9:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced MCHP Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MCHP price and gamma walls.

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