MDB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MDB - MongoDB, Inc. Class A

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$440.53
5.91 (1.36%) ▲
5d: +0.62%
30d: +43.19%
90d: +31.63%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026 11d
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $398.80 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 6.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.20
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.01
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MDB is currently trading at $440.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $307.91 to $415.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 77.3) compared to its historical average (64.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.2% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MDB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $355.00, while resistance sits at $473.10.

Market Sentiment: MDB scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $307.91 - $415.19
Company Quality Score 36/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 11.9%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.1% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($409.82)
  • BEARISH: Market expects 6.2% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
  • WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $307.91 - $415.19
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $355.00
Resistance Level $473.10
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Aug 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 77.27
Wall Street Target $409.82 (-7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 25.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 2.2%
Profit Margin -1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +6.2% premium
PE vs Historical 77.3 vs 64.5 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +6.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $467.84 (+6%)
2-Year Target $496.85 (+13%)
3-Year Target $527.65 (+20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 77→65) PE COMPRESSION $440.48 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 77.3, Growth: 18.8%) $738.09 (+68%)
Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.8%) $191.72 (-57%)
Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.8%) $162.96 (-63%)
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Last updated: August 19, 2026 7:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:18 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dwight A Merriman SELL 4000 shares 2026-04-16
Dwight A Merriman SELL 8000 shares 2026-04-14
Hope F Cochran SELL 1566 shares 2026-04-01

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Advanced MDB Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MDB price and gamma walls.

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