MKC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated Non-VTG CS
$54.70
0.44 (0.81%)
â˛
5d:
-0.73%
30d:
+5.07%
90d:
+18.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MKC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MKC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.20
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKC is currently trading at $54.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.94 to $55.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MKC scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.62 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $53.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MKC scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.62 (+11.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$51.94 -
$55.23
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MKC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.94 -
$55.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$53.61
Resistance Level
$56.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.45
Wall Street Target
$60.62
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.2%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.5 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$53.39
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$52.54
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$51.70
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â17)
$54.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$80.80
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 6.8%)
$66.13
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$56.21
(+4%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.89
Bull Case
$33.40
(-39%)
Analyst growth -44.0%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$30.36
(-44%)
Market implied -44.0%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$36.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.5 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$57.06
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 02, 2026 12:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Gavin Hattersley
BUY
2000 shares
2026-04-10
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