NOAH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOAH - Noah Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing five (5) Ordinary shares)
$6.77
-0.24 (-3.42%)
▼
5d:
-6.23%
30d:
-15.38%
90d:
-21.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOAH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.60
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOAH is currently trading at $6.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.27 to $8.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.7) compared to its historical average (0.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 31.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.69 (+52.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOAH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOAH scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.69 (+52.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.27 -
$8.07
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.5% below Wall St target ($10.69)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.27 -
$8.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.85
Resistance Level
$7.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.72
Wall Street Target
$10.69
(+52.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.8%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.7 vs 0.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.41
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$5.86
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$5.35
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$6.70
(-5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 89.5%)
$198.76
(+2735%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.7, Growth: 89.5%)
$7.20
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.6, Growth: 89.5%)
$6.12
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.21
Bull Case
$15.22
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$13.84
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 5.7
Bear Case
$4.71
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.7 to 0.9
Stabilization Target:
$8.77
(+25.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOAH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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