NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$150.88
-0.84 (-0.55%)
▼
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
-1.21%
90d:
+0.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.95
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $150.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.99 to $156.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $149.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$151.99 -
$156.86
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($155.37)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.99 -
$156.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.09
Resistance Level
$157.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.43
Wall Street Target
$155.37
(+2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$152.02
(0%)
2-Year Target
$151.71
(0%)
3-Year Target
$151.41
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$152.11
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.9%)
$279.75
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$213.35
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$181.35
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$257.52
(+71%)
Analyst growth 51.4%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$234.11
(+55%)
Market implied 51.4%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$105.13
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$153.03
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 15, 2026 9:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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