Oracle (ORCL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORCL - Oracle Corp
$128.23
-6.24 (-4.64%)
▼
5d:
-9.31%
30d:
-14.85%
90d:
+5.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 09, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $138.07 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ORCL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ORCL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$410.38
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$254.82
49.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORCL is currently trading at $128.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.93 to $150.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 54.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORCL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ORCL scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $237.97 (+85.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORCL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $127.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ORCL scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $237.97 (+85.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$134.93 -
$150.76
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORCL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 85.6% below Wall St target ($237.97)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.3%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$134.93 -
$150.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.36
Resistance Level
$146.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.74
Wall Street Target
$237.97
(+85.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
29.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.5%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$103.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$93.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→19)
$153.63
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.6%)
$540.63
(+322%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 35.6%)
$319.69
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 35.6%)
$271.73
(+112%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.99
Bull Case
$269.64
(+110%)
Analyst growth 82.3%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$245.12
(+91%)
Market implied 82.3%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$91.44
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$210.74
(+64.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 19, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORCL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ORCL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORCL price and gamma walls.
