What is the fair value of ORCL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ORCL to be between $122.75 and $147.19. The current price is $143.81.

What is the analyst price target for ORCL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ORCL is $246.43. This implies a potential upside of 71.4% from current levels.

ORCL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ORCL - Oracle Corp

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$143.81

1.02 (0.71%) ▲

5d: -6.18%

30d: +13.19%

90d: -20.75%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 08, 2026 18d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $148.49 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026

Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ORCL is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -14.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$442.28

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$274.62

47.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ORCL is currently trading at $143.81, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.75 to $147.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ORCL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $137.43, while resistance sits at $159.26.

Market Sentiment: ORCL scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $246.43 (+71.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH

Historical Trading Range $122.75 - $147.19

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 71.4% below Wall St target ($246.43)
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $122.75 - $147.19

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $137.43

Resistance Level $159.26

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 19, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.17

Wall Street Target $246.43 (+71.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 20.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 21.9%

Profit Margin 25.4%

Valuation Discount vs History -14.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 13.2 vs 20.8 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -14.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $129.43 (-10%)

2-Year Target $116.49 (-19%)

3-Year Target $104.84 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→21) $165.57 (+15%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 35.6%) $546.35 (+280%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 35.6%) $358.53 (+149%)

Bear: (PE: 11.2, Growth: 35.6%) $304.75 (+112%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.84

Bull Case $293.67 (+104%)

Analyst growth 87.0%, PE expands to 26.9

Base Case $266.98 (+86%)

Market implied 87.0%, PE stable at 24.5

Bear Case $97.10 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 20.8

Stabilization Target: $227.12 (+57.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +57.9%

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Last updated: August 20, 2026 6:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stuart Levey SELL 15000 shares 2026-04-16

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

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