Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PNW - Pinnacle West Capital Corporation
$98.92
0.94 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
+3.13%
30d:
+2.41%
90d:
-8.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PNW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.35
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.98
11.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PNW is currently trading at $98.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.22 to $97.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $99.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PNW scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PNW is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $99.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PNW scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$93.22 -
$97.76
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PNW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($102.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.22 -
$97.76
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.68
Resistance Level
$99.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.52
Wall Street Target
$102.93
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Profit Margin
11.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.34
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$95.78
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$94.25
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$98.98
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$191.92
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 19.6%)
$169.31
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$143.91
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.21
Bull Case
$116.80
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.4%, PE expands to 20.7
Base Case
$106.18
(+7%)
Market implied 8.4%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$66.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$103.89
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 8:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PNW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PNW price and gamma walls.
