SCHW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation
$109.29
-1.09 (-0.99%)
▼
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
+1.51%
90d:
+23.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $108.05 · last confirmed Sep 3, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SCHW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SCHW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.71
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.14
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SCHW is currently trading at $109.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.24 to $111.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SCHW scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.95 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SCHW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $106.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SCHW scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.95 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$106.24 -
$111.13
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($124.95)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$106.24 -
$111.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$106.34
Resistance Level
$114.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.00
Wall Street Target
$124.95
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.6%
Profit Margin
38.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.63
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$107.98
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$107.33
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$109.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.3%)
$274.83
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 20.3%)
$190.24
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 20.3%)
$161.70
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.60
Bull Case
$169.22
(+55%)
Analyst growth 39.4%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$153.84
(+41%)
Market implied 39.4%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$75.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$111.61
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 2:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SCHW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Woolway
SELL
7941 shares
2026-04-15
Paul V Woolway
SELL
7942 shares
2026-04-14
Nigel J Murtagh
SELL
41297 shares
2026-04-14
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