SQM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SQM - Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
$74.32
2.16 (2.99%)
▲
5d:
+3.29%
30d:
+12.05%
90d:
-14.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SQM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SQM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.66
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.02
4.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SQM is currently trading at $74.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.89 to $72.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (15.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 165.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.78 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $84.78 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$67.89 -
$72.79
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($84.78)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.89 -
$72.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.07
Resistance Level
$74.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.40
Wall Street Target
$84.78
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
69.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
165.2%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 15.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$58.45
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$52.60
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$75.84
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$156.30
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 3.7%)
$80.39
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 3.7%)
$68.33
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$156.75
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.8
Base Case
$142.50
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.3
Bear Case
$48.45
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 15.0
Stabilization Target:
$104.03
(+44.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 16, 2026 1:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:54 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SQM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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