SQM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SQM - Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
$61.64
-1.19 (-1.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.6%
30d:
-11.04%
90d:
-7.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SQM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SQM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.64
Based on -1.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SQM is currently trading at $61.64, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.28 to $72.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 646.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.89 (+34.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SQM scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $82.89 (+34.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$64.28 -
$72.88
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.5% below Wall St target ($82.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.28 -
$72.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.35
Resistance Level
$67.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$82.89
(+34.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
136.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
646.4%
Profit Margin
20.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 14.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.48
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$49.93
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$44.94
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→14)
$71.07
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -7.6%)
$108.97
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -7.6%)
$48.57
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: -7.6%)
$41.28
(-33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$99.03
(+61%)
Analyst growth 43.3%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$90.03
(+46%)
Market implied 43.3%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$42.72
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$97.50
(+58.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+58.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 15, 2026 4:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SQM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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