Is TD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TD is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of TD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TD to be between $119.33 and $122.82. The current price is $125.26.

What is the analyst price target for TD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TD is $113.83. This implies a potential upside of -7.5% from current levels.

TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TD - Toronto Dominion Bank

Commercial Banks, NEC

$125.26

0.90 (0.72%) ▲

5d: +3.45%

30d: +1.34%

90d: +16.37%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your TD Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 27, 2026 9d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 13, 2026 at $123.11 · last confirmed Aug 14, 2026

Strength: 7.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$156.70

Based on 7.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$97.30

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $125.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.33 to $122.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.4) compared to its historical average (10.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $124.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $119.33 - $122.82

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 47.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($113.83)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.2% growth with -31.5% revenue growth
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (49/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $119.33 - $122.82

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $119.15

Resistance Level $124.42

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.43

Wall Street Target $113.83 (-7.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -31.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -61.2%

Profit Margin 25.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.2% premium

PE vs Historical 11.4 vs 10.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $128.28 (+4%)

2-Year Target $133.67 (+9%)

3-Year Target $139.28 (+13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $123.09 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.2%) $299.55 (+143%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 11.2%) $169.23 (+38%)

Bear: (PE: 9.7, Growth: 11.2%) $143.85 (+17%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 19.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.20

Bull Case $235.66 (+90%)

Analyst growth 73.7%, PE expands to 21.9

Base Case $214.24 (+72%)

Market implied 73.7%, PE stable at 19.9

Bear Case $83.85 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 17, 2026 9:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:50 AM

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