VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$548.05
7.79 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
+8.36%
30d:
+15.84%
90d:
+26.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$737.96
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$458.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $548.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $472.25 to $521.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.8) compared to its historical average (21.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $555.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRTX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $555.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRTX scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$472.25 -
$521.44
Company Quality Score
30/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
20.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRTX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($563.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$472.25 -
$521.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$502.29
Resistance Level
$555.32
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.76
Wall Street Target
$563.12
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 21.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$564.03
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$588.85
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$614.76
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$538.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$814.73
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.7%)
$660.29
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 14.7%)
$561.25
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.94
Bull Case
$738.47
(+35%)
Analyst growth 21.6%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$671.34
(+23%)
Market implied 21.6%, PE stable at 30.8
Bear Case
$375.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joy Liu
SELL
978 shares
2026-04-01
Carmen Bozic
SELL
2329 shares
2026-03-13
Amit Sachdev
SELL
1846 shares
2026-02-25
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