Is VRTX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, VRTX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of VRTX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for VRTX to be between $501.45 and $521.16. The current price is $524.52.

What is the analyst price target for VRTX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for VRTX is $571.46. This implies a potential upside of 8.9% from current levels.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc

PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS

$524.52

9.87 (1.92%) ▲

5d: +5.22%

30d: +1.85%

90d: +10.87%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 02, 2026 11d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $502.45 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 3.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VRTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

VRTX is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today

SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; VRTX has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.

See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 14.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$705.91

Based on 9.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$438.32

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $524.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $501.45 to $521.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.7) compared to its historical average (22.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $528.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: VRTX scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $501.45 - $521.16

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 58.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($571.46)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $501.45 - $521.16

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $484.08

Resistance Level $528.57

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.71

Wall Street Target $571.46 (+8.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 8.0%

Profit Margin 35.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.7% premium

PE vs Historical 25.7 vs 22.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $549.17 (+5%)

2-Year Target $574.98 (+10%)

3-Year Target $602.01 (+15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 26→22) PE COMPRESSION $524.42 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 25.7, Growth: 14.3%) $783.71 (+49%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.3%) $605.29 (+15%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 14.3%) $514.50 (-2%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 29.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.27

Bull Case $668.66 (+28%)

Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 32.8

Base Case $607.87 (+16%)

Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 29.8

Bear Case $349.96 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 21, 2026 6:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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