VRTX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRTX - Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc
$496.07
12.04 (2.49%)
â˛
5d:
+3.98%
30d:
-0.09%
90d:
+16.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRTX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$705.77
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$438.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRTX is currently trading at $496.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $472.87 to $504.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.7) is in line with its historical norms (21.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $497.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $558.32 (+15.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRTX is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $497.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $558.32 (+15.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$472.87 -
$504.26
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($558.32)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$472.87 -
$504.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$465.51
Resistance Level
$497.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.73
Wall Street Target
$558.32
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Profit Margin
35.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 21.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$492.26
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$500.63
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$509.14
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â22)
PE COMPRESSION
$483.77
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 14.0%)
$717.53
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$638.54
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 14.0%)
$542.76
(+12%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.41
Bull Case
$652.24
(+32%)
Analyst growth 22.3%, PE expands to 30.6
Base Case
$592.94
(+20%)
Market implied 22.3%, PE stable at 27.9
Bear Case
$329.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 08, 2026 5:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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