Century Aluminum (CENX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CENX - Century Aluminum Co
$35.10
1.74 (5.22%)
▲
5d:
+1.68%
30d:
-3.04%
90d:
-21.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 23, 2026 at $32.04 · last confirmed Oct 28, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CENX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.2% annual earnings decline despite 1010% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CENX appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.2% annual earnings decline despite 1010% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.16
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.19
43.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CENX is currently trading at $35.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.48 to $37.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.1) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1009.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.75, while resistance sits at $36.59. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CENX scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.20 (+71.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CENX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $30.75, while resistance sits at $36.59. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CENX scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.20 (+71.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$33.48 -
$37.70
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.5% below Wall St target ($60.20)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 81/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.48 -
$37.70
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.75
Resistance Level
$36.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.08
Wall Street Target
$60.20
(+71.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1009.8%
Profit Margin
22.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.1 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.59
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→6)
$46.53
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.0%)
$344.31
(+881%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.1, Growth: 15.0%)
$53.39
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.6, Growth: 15.0%)
$45.38
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.79
Bull Case
$72.24
(+106%)
Analyst growth 96.8%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$65.67
(+87%)
Market implied 96.8%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$22.68
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.1 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$63.83
(+81.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+81.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 29, 2026 7:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CENX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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