AFL Aflac Inc. ACCIDENT & HEALTH INSURANCE Best Life Insurance Stocks 2026 →

Aflac (AFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$126.04
-0.61 (-0.48%) ▼
5d: +0.59% 30d: +8.24% 90d: +4.08%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
40/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$115.52 – $124.43
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.5x FAIR
vs 15.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$118.53
-6.4% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$120.88 / $131.19
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 29, 2026 at $123.19 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026

Strength: 3.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.49
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.48
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AFL is currently trading at $126.03, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.52 to $124.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.5) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $120.88, while resistance sits at $131.19.

Market Sentiment: AFL scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $115.52 - $124.43
Company Quality Score 40/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 24.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $115.52 - $124.43
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $120.88
Resistance Level $131.19
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($118.53)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -31.0% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.48
Wall Street Target $118.53 (-6.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -31.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -80.2%
Profit Margin 21.2%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.7% premium
PE vs Historical 16.5 vs 15.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $130.06 (+3%)
2-Year Target $133.57 (+6%)
3-Year Target $137.18 (+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 16→15) PE COMPRESSION $126.56 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.1%) $172.20 (+36%)
Base: (SPY PE: 16.5, Growth: 4.1%) $142.85 (+13%)
Bear: (PE: 14.0, Growth: 4.1%) $121.42 (-4%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case $154.57 (+22%)
Analyst growth 12.2%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case $140.52 (+11%)
Market implied 12.2%, PE stable at 18.3
Bear Case $85.15 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AFL)

Bullish 4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
3
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Aug 14, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: StockTwits shows 100.0% bullish sentiment towards $AFL with no recent news articles available.
Key Retail Themes: Traders expressing positive sentiment towards $AFL
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 11:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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