Is AFL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AFL is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AFL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AFL to be between $120.01 and $126.75. The current price is $116.07.

What is the analyst price target for AFL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AFL is $118.27. This implies a potential upside of 1.9% from current levels.

AFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AFL - Aflac Inc.

ACCIDENT & HEALTH INSURANCE

$116.07

-0.10 (-0.09%) ▼

5d: -4.43%

30d: -6.65%

90d: -1.48%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AFL Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $121.94 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$151.32

Based on 5.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$93.96

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AFL is currently trading at $116.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.01 to $126.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AFL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $120.01 - $126.75

Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 53.3%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($118.27)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $120.01 - $126.75

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $115.82

Resistance Level $124.80

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.35

Wall Street Target $118.27 (+1.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 46.8%

Profit Margin 26.9%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.5% premium

PE vs Historical 15.4 vs 15.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $116.65 (+1%)

2-Year Target $117.23 (+1%)

3-Year Target $117.82 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) PE COMPRESSION $115.91 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.6%) $189.19 (+63%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.6%) $144.69 (+25%)

Bear: (PE: 13.0, Growth: 7.6%) $122.98 (+6%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 12.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.27

Bull Case $104.24 (-10%)

Analyst growth -18.4%, PE expands to 13.8

Base Case $94.77 (-18%)

Market implied -18.4%, PE stable at 12.5

Bear Case $79.00 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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