Is AFL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AFL is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AFL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

What is the fair value of AFL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AFL to be between $115.42 and $122.90. The current price is $115.28.

What is the analyst price target for AFL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AFL is $118.53. This implies a potential upside of 2.8% from current levels.

Aflac (AFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AFL - Aflac Inc.

ACCIDENT & HEALTH INSURANCE

$115.28

0.81 (0.71%) ▲

5d: -2.6%

30d: -4.51%

90d: -1.0%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AFL Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $117.21 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026

Strength: 3.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AFL is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$151.55

Based on 5.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$94.10

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AFL is currently trading at $115.28, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.42 to $122.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $113.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $115.42 - $122.90

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 75.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($118.53)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $115.42 - $122.90

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $113.60

Resistance Level $119.19

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.29

Wall Street Target $118.53 (+2.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 46.8%

Profit Margin 26.9%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.3% premium

PE vs Historical 15.3 vs 15.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $115.63 (+0%)

2-Year Target $115.97 (+1%)

3-Year Target $116.32 (+1%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) PE COMPRESSION $115.66 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.5%) $188.96 (+64%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.5%) $143.21 (+24%)

Bear: (PE: 13.0, Growth: 7.5%) $121.73 (+6%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 12.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.27

Bull Case $102.44 (-11%)

Analyst growth -18.6%, PE expands to 13.6

Base Case $93.12 (-19%)

Market implied -18.6%, PE stable at 12.4

Bear Case $77.84 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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