Aflac (AFL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AFL - Aflac Inc.
$120.15
-0.12 (-0.10%)
▼
5d:
+1.64%
30d:
+4.84%
90d:
-3.37%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AFL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.29
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AFL is currently trading at $120.15, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.96 to $118.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFL scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AFL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $120.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AFL scores 10/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$112.96 -
$118.08
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AFL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (10/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($117.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$112.96 -
$118.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.47
Resistance Level
$120.90
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.78
Wall Street Target
$117.33
(-2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.8%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.71
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$123.29
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$124.90
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$120.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$192.73
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$153.11
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 8.4%)
$130.14
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.30
Bull Case
$108.33
(-10%)
Analyst growth -18.1%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$98.49
(-18%)
Market implied -18.1%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$81.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AFL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AFL price and gamma walls.
