Autoliv (ALV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$113.07
1.18 (1.05%)
▲
5d:
-0.75%
30d:
-5.15%
90d:
-2.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$181.43
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $113.07, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $115.02 to $122.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALV scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.31 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $110.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALV scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.31 (+18.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$115.02 -
$122.71
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($134.31)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$115.02 -
$122.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$110.45
Resistance Level
$119.19
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.69
Wall Street Target
$134.31
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.5%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.37
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$109.70
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$108.06
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$113.75
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.7%)
$350.16
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 13.7%)
$166.32
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 13.7%)
$141.37
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.37
Bull Case
$171.60
(+52%)
Analyst growth 39.4%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$156.00
(+38%)
Market implied 39.4%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$76.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$119.03
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:31 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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