ALV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$125.37
3.68 (3.02%)
▲
5d:
+2.67%
30d:
+8.82%
90d:
+4.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.63
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $125.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.03 to $124.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$119.03 -
$124.12
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($134.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.5% growth with 3.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$119.03 -
$124.12
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.84
Resistance Level
$125.65
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$134.71
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-37.5%
Profit Margin
5.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$129.16
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$131.10
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.4%)
$363.86
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 15.4%)
$192.55
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 15.4%)
$163.67
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.45
Bull Case
$186.99
(+49%)
Analyst growth 39.7%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$169.99
(+36%)
Market implied 39.7%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$82.75
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Franz-Josef Kortuem
SELL
8300 shares
2026-02-26
Magnus Jarlegren
SELL
1598 shares
2026-02-25
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