ARX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARX - Accelerant Holdings
$13.13
0.24 (1.86%)
▲
5d:
+1.0%
30d:
-22.72%
90d:
+2.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.05
27.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARX is currently trading at $13.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.42 to $16.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $14.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.33 (+47.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $14.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.33 (+47.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.42 -
$16.37
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.2% below Wall St target ($19.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.42 -
$16.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.41
Resistance Level
$14.95
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.16
Wall Street Target
$19.33
(+47.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.1%
Profit Margin
-150.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.57
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$12.03
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$11.51
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$13.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 25.1%)
$39.53
(+201%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 25.1%)
$25.71
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 25.1%)
$21.85
(+66%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$14.92
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jay Michael Green
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-23
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