CALX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CALX - CALIX, INC.
$39.73
-0.66 (-1.63%)
▼
5d:
+3.28%
30d:
+2.95%
90d:
-16.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CALX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CALX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.68
39.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CALX is currently trading at $39.73, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.62 to $39.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.27, while resistance sits at $41.26.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+66.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CALX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.27, while resistance sits at $41.26.
Market Sentiment: CALX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $66.00 (+66.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.62 -
$39.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 66.1% below Wall St target ($66.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.62 -
$39.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.28
Resistance Level
$41.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.87
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+66.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.9%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$32.25
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$29.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→22)
$39.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.8%)
$152.25
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 40.8%)
$110.95
(+179%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 40.8%)
$94.31
(+137%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.89
Bull Case
$48.77
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$40.39
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$30.90
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$54.32
(+36.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CALX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CALX price and gamma walls.
