EL The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS Best Cosmetics Stocks 2026 →

The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$113.43
+0.27 (+0.24%) ▲
5d: +7.63% 30d: +13.38% 90d: +29.37%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (47%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$98.09 – $110.59
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
35.7x FAIR
vs 31.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$114.89
+1.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$103.09 / $115.29
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: EL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $108.71 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026

Strength: 6.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.09
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $113.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.09 to $110.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 35.7) compared to its historical average (31.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $115.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $98.09 - $110.59
Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 47.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $98.09 - $110.59
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $103.09
Resistance Level $115.29
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 10, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($114.89)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 35.68
Wall Street Target $114.89 (+1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 392.3%
Profit Margin 2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History +4.5% premium
PE vs Historical 35.7 vs 31.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $118.53 (+5%)
2-Year Target $123.87 (+9%)
3-Year Target $129.44 (+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 36→31) PE COMPRESSION $113.18 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 35.7, Growth: 31.0%) $255.15 (+125%)
Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 31.0%) $142.01 (+25%)
Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 31.0%) $120.70 (+6%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 31.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.55
Bull Case $136.97 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.6
Base Case $113.43 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.0
Bear Case $86.77 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 28.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (EL)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: There are no recent news articles or notable bullish StockTwits messages for $EL.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 6:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check

Is EL showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced EL Option Strategies

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