The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EL - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
$90.19
-2.58 (-2.78%)
▼
5d:
-5.43%
30d:
-9.81%
90d:
+7.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: EL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$154.76
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$96.09
6.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $90.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.42 to $102.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 28.4) is in line with its historical norms (31.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.48 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $88.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $107.48 (+19.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$94.42 -
$102.83
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding EL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($107.48)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.42 -
$102.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.68
Resistance Level
$100.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.37
Wall Street Target
$107.48
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.5%
Profit Margin
1.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.4 vs 31.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$87.48
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$84.86
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$82.31
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→31)
$90.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.4, Growth: 31.0%)
$202.87
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 31.0%)
$145.87
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 31.0%)
$123.99
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 29.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.03
Bull Case
$108.90
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$90.19
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$69.00
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.4 to 31.1
Stabilization Target:
$98.86
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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