ELF
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
PERFUMES, COSMETICS & OTHER TOILET PREPARATIONS
Best Cosmetics Stocks 2026 →
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$118.46
-0.05 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
+4.25%
30d:
+9.52%
90d:
+28.69%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect ELF Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$107.83 – $116.32
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
32.9x
STRETCHED
vs 22.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$131.00
+10.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$105.36 / $123.13
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ELF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $112.45 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.37
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $118.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.83 to $116.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.9) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.36, while resistance sits at $123.13.
Market Sentiment: ELF scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.00 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.36, while resistance sits at $123.13.
Market Sentiment: ELF scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.00 (+10.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$107.83 -
$116.32
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$107.83 -
$116.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$105.36
Resistance Level
$123.13
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($131.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 12.9% growth expectation is conservative given 900% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.85
Wall Street Target
$131.00
(+10.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
900.0%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.9% premium
PE vs Historical
32.9 vs 22.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.74
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$150.99
(+28%)
3-Year Target
$170.47
(+44%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$187.22
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$113.17
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.5%)
$96.20
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 42.02 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.82
Bull Case
$143.04
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 44.1
Base Case
$118.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 42.0
Bear Case
$90.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ELF)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Well People, a clean beauty brand from e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF), has launched at Sprouts Farmers Market, expanding access to its high-performance, plant-powered cosmetics and skin care in more than 500 stores nationwide.
Key Retail Themes:
Expansion of Well People at Sprouts Farmers Market
Commitment to clean beauty and wellness
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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