ELF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$101.94
3.48 (3.53%)
▲
5d:
+11.48%
30d:
+33.87%
90d:
+91.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ELF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ELF shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.09
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $101.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.18 to $94.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 28.3) compared to its historical average (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ELF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: ELF scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$77.18 -
$94.57
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
ELF is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.8% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($97.75)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 11.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.18 -
$94.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$89.38
Resistance Level
$102.22
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.27
Wall Street Target
$97.75
(-4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.1%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.0% premium
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 20.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$113.15
(+11%)
2-Year Target
$125.60
(+23%)
3-Year Target
$139.42
(+37%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 16.5%)
$161.11
(+58%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$114.37
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$97.21
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.84 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.93
Bull Case
$123.09
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.6
Base Case
$101.94
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.8
Bear Case
$77.98
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tarang Amin
SELL
52880 shares
2026-04-01
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