MarketAxess (MKTX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MKTX - MarketAxess Holdings Inc.
$164.14
-0.08 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
-0.03%
30d:
+0.8%
90d:
+40.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MKTX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.60
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MKTX is currently trading at $164.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $162.80 to $163.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MKTX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$162.80 -
$163.84
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.3%
Protect Your Profits
MKTX is technically overbought (RSI 80). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($158.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$162.80 -
$163.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.75
(1.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.28
Resistance Level
$164.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.76
Wall Street Target
$158.00
(-3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 18.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$165.95
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$167.77
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$169.62
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$164.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 9.7%)
$235.48
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$216.53
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$184.05
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.47
Bull Case
$186.62
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.3%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$169.65
(+3%)
Market implied 3.3%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$111.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 2:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MKTX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Pintoff
SELL
100 shares
2026-04-10
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Advanced MKTX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MKTX price and gamma walls.
