SFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
$24.97
0.44 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
-3.7%
30d:
-4.55%
90d:
+6.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SFD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.20
Based on 0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFD is currently trading at $24.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.36 to $26.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.36 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.36 (+25.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.36 -
$26.63
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($31.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.36 -
$26.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.54
Resistance Level
$27.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.68
Wall Street Target
$31.36
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.67
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.37
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$24.08
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$24.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.3%)
$50.85
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: -3.3%)
$22.61
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: -3.3%)
$19.22
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.57
Bull Case
$27.53
(+12%)
Analyst growth 0.4%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$25.03
(+2%)
Market implied 0.4%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$16.96
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$25.79
(+3.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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