Smithfield Foods (SFD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
$18.22
-0.26 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
-2.98%
30d:
-10.29%
90d:
-26.41%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.43
Based on 1.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFD is currently trading at $18.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.51 to $20.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.93 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.20. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SFD scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.93 (+36.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.51 -
$20.46
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.8% below Wall St target ($24.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.51 -
$20.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.21
Resistance Level
$19.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.75
Wall Street Target
$24.93
(+36.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.56
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$16.93
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$16.32
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$18.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -2.0%)
$38.89
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -2.0%)
$17.13
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -2.0%)
$14.56
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.71
Bull Case
$15.62
(-14%)
Analyst growth -23.1%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$14.20
(-22%)
Market implied -23.1%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$12.57
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$20.41
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 14, 2026 7:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:16 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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