Smithfield Foods (SFD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SFD - Smithfield Foods, Inc. Common Stock
$18.93
-0.63 (-3.22%)
▼
5d:
-5.11%
30d:
-15.15%
90d:
-23.3%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SFD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.41
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SFD is currently trading at $18.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.14 to $22.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.75 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SFD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.75 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.14 -
$22.43
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 41.3% below Wall St target ($26.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.14 -
$22.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.91
Resistance Level
$21.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.43
Wall Street Target
$26.75
(+41.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.5%
Profit Margin
6.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.96
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$17.05
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$16.18
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$19.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.0%)
$49.93
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 3.0%)
$20.67
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 3.0%)
$17.57
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$18.24
(-4%)
Analyst growth -15.2%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$16.58
(-12%)
Market implied -15.2%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$13.30
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$22.24
(+17.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 24, 2026 4:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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