SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$38.75
-0.15 (-0.39%)
▼
5d:
-0.69%
30d:
+2.95%
90d:
+8.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.28
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $38.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.77 to $39.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+24.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.77 -
$39.72
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.7% below Wall St target ($48.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.77 -
$39.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.94
Resistance Level
$42.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.84
Wall Street Target
$48.33
(+24.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.90
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.06
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$36.25
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$38.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$152.27
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$54.84
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$46.61
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$56.82
(+47%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$51.66
(+33%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$26.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$41.50
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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