Standard Motor Products (SMP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$37.68
0.61 (1.65%)
▲
5d:
+1.45%
30d:
+0.99%
90d:
-2.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 30, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite extended pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SMP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite extended pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.12
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.19
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $37.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.81 to $37.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMP scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SMP scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+32.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.81 -
$37.66
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($50.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.81 -
$37.66
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.67
Resistance Level
$38.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.72
Wall Street Target
$50.00
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.96
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.26
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$35.57
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$37.80
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.2%)
$148.16
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 15.2%)
$57.56
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 15.2%)
$48.93
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.93
Bull Case
$50.67
(+35%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 10.4
Base Case
$46.06
(+22%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 9.4
Bear Case
$25.21
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$40.04
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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