SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$38.68
0.45 (1.18%)
▲
5d:
-0.67%
30d:
+1.98%
90d:
+0.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.55
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $38.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.56 to $39.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.56 -
$39.48
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($48.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.56 -
$39.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.56
Resistance Level
$41.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.74
Wall Street Target
$48.33
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.35
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$36.49
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$35.65
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$38.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$144.93
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$54.10
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$45.99
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$56.49
(+48%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$51.35
(+34%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$26.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$41.00
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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