SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$38.78
0.55 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
-0.41%
30d:
+2.24%
90d:
+0.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
TODAY
Get Alerted When SMP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$60.55
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $38.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.56 to $39.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.56, while resistance sits at $41.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.56, while resistance sits at $41.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.33 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.56 -
$39.48
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($48.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.56 -
$39.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.56
Resistance Level
$41.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.85
Wall Street Target
$48.33
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.08
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.40
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$36.72
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$38.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$144.93
(+274%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 12.3%)
$54.88
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$46.65
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$56.49
(+48%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$51.35
(+34%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$26.30
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$41.00
(+5.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Auto Parts Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto Parts by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AZO
AutoZone Inc |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$3962 | 47 HOLD |
|
ORLY
O’Reilly Automotive Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$108 | 51 HOLD |
|
APTV
Aptiv PLC |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$78 | 56 HOLD |
|
MBLY
Mobileye Global Inc. Cla… |
BUY
28 analysts |
$12 | 47 HOLD |
|
HSAI
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$30 | 58 HOLD |
