SMP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMP - Standard Motor Products
$38.61
0.39 (1.02%)
â˛
5d:
-0.85%
30d:
+1.37%
90d:
+2.58%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SMP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SMP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.89
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.67
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMP is currently trading at $38.61, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.24 to $39.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 18.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+29.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMP is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SMP scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.00 (+29.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$38.24 -
$39.88
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.4% below Wall St target ($50.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.24 -
$39.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.98
Resistance Level
$40.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.91
Wall Street Target
$50.00
(+29.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.07
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$37.50
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$36.94
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
$38.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.2%)
$149.73
(+287%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 15.2%)
$59.05
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 15.2%)
$50.19
(+30%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.93
Bull Case
$53.17
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 10.9
Base Case
$48.34
(+25%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 9.9
Bear Case
$26.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$40.53
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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