Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WLFC - Willis Lease Finance Corp
$45.67
-2.13 (-4.46%)
▼
5d:
-15.94%
30d:
-16.81%
90d:
-80.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WLFC is down 15.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: WLFC is down 15.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$71.51
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $45.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.36 to $56.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+65.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+65.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$51.36 -
$56.47
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 65.3% below Wall St target ($75.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.36 -
$56.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.53
Resistance Level
$56.02
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.65
Wall Street Target
$75.50
(+65.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.4%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$36.99
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$33.29
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$53.59
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -5.0%)
$120.24
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: -5.0%)
$39.18
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: -5.0%)
$33.30
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.80
Bull Case
$95.06
(+108%)
Analyst growth 80.8%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$86.42
(+89%)
Market implied 80.8%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$32.50
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$73.51
(+61.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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