WLFC
Willis Lease Finance Corp
WHOLESALE-MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES
Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$46.35
-0.12 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-1.21%
30d:
+22.33%
90d:
-18.58%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
36/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$38.40 – $44.96
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.9x
CHEAP
vs 10.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$65.50
+41.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$39.50 / $48.78
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: WLFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.71
Based on -6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $46.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.40 to $44.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.49, while resistance sits at $48.78.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.50 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.49, while resistance sits at $48.78.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $65.50 (+41.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.40 -
$44.96
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$38.40 -
$44.96
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$39.50
Resistance Level
$48.78
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.3% below Wall St target ($65.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.93
Wall Street Target
$65.50
(+41.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.5%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.45
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$42.63
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$40.88
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$46.23
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -16.2%)
$75.14
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: -16.2%)
$33.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: -16.2%)
$28.72
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.41
Bull Case
$77.80
(+68%)
Analyst growth 52.2%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$70.73
(+53%)
Market implied 52.2%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$31.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$52.42
(+13.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.1%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (WLFC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits shows 100.0% bullish sentiment towards $WLFC with no recent news articles available.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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