WLFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WLFC - Willis Lease Finance Corp
$172.04
-2.49 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-7.17%
30d:
-12.17%
90d:
-11.79%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WLFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WLFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$388.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$241.19
28.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $172.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.42 to $212.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $168.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.00 (+31.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $168.51. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.00 (+31.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$174.42 -
$212.46
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.4% below Wall St target ($226.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.42 -
$212.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.51
Resistance Level
$190.62
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.57
Wall Street Target
$226.00
(+31.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.5%
Profit Margin
16.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.61
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$155.59
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$147.97
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$171.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 26.7%)
$801.32
(+366%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 26.7%)
$350.14
(+104%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 26.7%)
$297.62
(+73%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.55
Bull Case
$221.34
(+21%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$201.22
(+10%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$126.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$199.47
(+15.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin Chandler Willis
SELL
3400 shares
2026-04-01
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
9727 shares
2026-03-27
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
4270 shares
2026-03-26
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