Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WLFC - Willis Lease Finance Corp
$56.17
-0.02 (-0.04%)
âŧ
5d:
+1.19%
30d:
-1.53%
90d:
-70.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WLFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: WLFC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.2% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.84
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $56.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $53.66 to $59.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.13, while resistance sits at $60.00.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+34.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $52.13, while resistance sits at $60.00.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+34.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$53.66 -
$59.25
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.4% below Wall St target ($75.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$53.66 -
$59.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.13
Resistance Level
$60.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.18
Wall Street Target
$75.50
(+34.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.4%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.00
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$46.31
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$42.05
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â11)
$56.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -5.0%)
$118.88
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -5.0%)
$48.19
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -5.0%)
$40.96
(-27%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.93
Bull Case
$108.05
(+92%)
Analyst growth 74.8%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$98.23
(+75%)
Market implied 74.8%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$38.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$74.88
(+33.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 5:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin Chandler Willis
SELL
3400 shares
2026-04-01
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
9727 shares
2026-03-27
Charles F Iv Willis
SELL
4270 shares
2026-03-26
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