Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WLFC - Willis Lease Finance Corp
$38.99
-1.31 (-3.25%)
▼
5d:
+3.67%
30d:
-26.25%
90d:
-44.67%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WLFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WLFC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.83
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.74
8.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WLFC is currently trading at $38.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.14 to $53.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.39, while resistance sits at $42.13. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+93.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WLFC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.39, while resistance sits at $42.13. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: WLFC scores 78/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $75.50 (+93.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.14 -
$53.09
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (78/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 93.6% below Wall St target ($75.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 15% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.14 -
$53.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.39
Resistance Level
$42.13
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.68
Wall Street Target
$75.50
(+93.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.4%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.09
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$31.58
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$28.42
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$51.58
(+32%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -5.0%)
$117.06
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: -5.0%)
$33.45
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: -5.0%)
$28.43
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.21
Bull Case
$70.20
(+74%)
Analyst growth 63.2%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$63.82
(+58%)
Market implied 63.2%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$26.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$70.76
(+81.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+81.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WLFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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