Is XP stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, XP is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of XP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for XP to be between $15.95 and $19.03. The current price is $19.86.

What is the analyst price target for XP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for XP is $23.34. This implies a potential upside of 17.5% from current levels.

XP (XP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

XP - XP Inc. Class A Common Stock

Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies

$19.86

-0.11 (-0.55%) ▼

5d: -0.7%

30d: +28.63%

90d: +26.9%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 17, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 1, 2026 at $18.72 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 6.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: XP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 12.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$27.11

Based on 8.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$16.84

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: XP is currently trading at $19.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.95 to $19.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, XP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.24, while resistance sits at $20.75.

Market Sentiment: XP scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.34 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $15.95 - $19.03

Company Quality Score 33/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.34)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $15.95 - $19.03

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $17.24

Resistance Level $20.75

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 1.63

Wall Street Target $23.34 (+17.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 8.6%

Profit Margin 28.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.9% premium

PE vs Historical 1.6 vs 1.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $20.24 (+2%)

2-Year Target $20.62 (+4%)

3-Year Target $21.01 (+6%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 2→2) PE COMPRESSION $19.34 (-3%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.5%) $350.22 (+1663%)

Base: (SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 12.5%) $28.30 (+43%)

Bear: (PE: 1.4, Growth: 12.5%) $24.06 (+21%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 9.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.07

Bull Case $43.93 (+121%)

Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.6

Base Case $39.94 (+101%)

Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.7

Bear Case $13.58 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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NEUTRAL

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