AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$227.60
7.30 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
+8.63%
30d:
+12.06%
90d:
+30.96%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AGM is 7.2% above its trading range ($212.27). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AGM is 7.2% above its trading range ($212.27). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.78
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $227.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.70 to $212.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $228.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $228.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$196.70 -
$212.27
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($219.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.7% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$196.70 -
$212.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$201.85
Resistance Level
$228.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.66
Wall Street Target
$219.67
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
56.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 8.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$245.13
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$264.00
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$284.33
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$226.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$579.10
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$297.80
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$237.45
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.89
Bull Case
$289.20
(+27%)
Analyst growth 19.3%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$262.91
(+16%)
Market implied 19.3%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$149.80
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 12:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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