AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$77.30
-1.08 (-1.38%)
▼
5d:
-1.35%
30d:
+17.57%
90d:
+45.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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1 traders called AMBA this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.87
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $77.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.11 to $77.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 115.3) compared to its historical average (101.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $60.34, while resistance sits at $94.00.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $60.34, while resistance sits at $94.00.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.00 (+22.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$64.11 -
$77.88
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($95.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.11 -
$77.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$60.34
Resistance Level
$94.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
115.27
Wall Street Target
$95.00
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Profit Margin
-17.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
115.3 vs 101.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.70
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$84.25
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$87.96
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 115→101)
PE COMPRESSION
$77.38
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 115.3, Growth: 12.5%)
$110.17
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.5%)
$20.82
(-73%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$17.69
(-77%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 10, 2026 5:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Alexander Young
SELL
1971 shares
2026-04-21
Chan W Lee
SELL
3641 shares
2026-03-19
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
2155 shares
2026-03-19
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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
