What is the fair value of ASML stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ASML to be between $1496.56 and $1736.27. The current price is $1863.55.

What is the analyst price target for ASML?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ASML is $1701.13. This implies a potential upside of -8.7% from current levels.

ASML Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ASML - ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

$1863.55

-35.93 (-1.89%) ▼

5d: +13.51%

30d: +17.83%

90d: +38.48%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 15, 2026 30d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

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Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ASML is 7.3% above its trading range ($1736.27). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$2019.61

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$1254.02

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ASML is currently trading at $1863.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1496.56 to $1736.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 44.9) compared to its historical average (39.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ASML is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $1903.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: ASML has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $1496.56 - $1736.27

Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 51.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($1701.13)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $1496.56 - $1736.27

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $1585.61

Resistance Level $1903.50

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Jun 12, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 44.92

Wall Street Target $1701.13 (-8.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 19.2%

Profit Margin 29.7%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.5% premium

PE vs Historical 44.9 vs 39.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $1947.41 (+5%)

2-Year Target $2035.04 (+9%)

3-Year Target $2126.62 (+14%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 45→39) PE COMPRESSION $1865.21 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 44.9, Growth: 31.8%) $4267.15 (+129%)

Base: (SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 31.8%) $2082.19 (+12%)

Bear: (PE: 18.6, Growth: 31.8%) $1769.86 (-5%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (64x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 63.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.82

Bull Case $2906.72 (+56%)

Analyst growth 39.1%, PE expands to 70.1

Base Case $2642.47 (+42%)

Market implied 39.1%, PE stable at 63.7

Bear Case $1291.65 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 54.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: June 14, 2026 4:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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ASML Holding NV

Special Industry Machinery, NEC

About

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in manufacturing semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML's main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $389,416,916,894

Employees: 44,127

Listed Since: 1995-03-15

Website: Visit

CIK: 0000937966

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