AstraZeneca (AZN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZN - AstraZeneca PLC
$166.08
-0.06 (-0.04%)
▼
5d:
+3.69%
30d:
+0.69%
90d:
-5.06%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 17.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 17.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$452.28
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$280.83
40.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZN is currently trading at $166.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $158.94 to $165.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (25.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $167.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+27.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $167.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AZN scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+27.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$158.94 -
$165.64
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.8% below Wall St target ($212.17)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$158.94 -
$165.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.74
Resistance Level
$167.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.34
Wall Street Target
$212.17
(+27.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Profit Margin
17.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 25.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$134.52
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$121.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→26)
$215.27
(+30%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.8%)
$354.13
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 14.8%)
$251.43
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 14.8%)
$213.71
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.81
Bull Case
$310.76
(+87%)
Analyst growth 70.0%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case
$282.51
(+70%)
Market implied 70.0%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$112.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 25.5
Stabilization Target:
$295.29
(+77.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+77.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 20, 2026 9:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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