COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$217.91
5.43 (2.56%)
â˛
5d:
-4.15%
30d:
+8.98%
90d:
+16.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $217.76 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: COF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$353.13
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$219.27
0.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $217.91, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $205.96 to $221.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $211.32, while resistance sits at $228.14.
Market Sentiment: COF scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.36 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $211.32, while resistance sits at $228.14.
Market Sentiment: COF scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $257.36 (+18.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$205.96 -
$221.13
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding COF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($257.36)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 1111.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$205.96 -
$221.13
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$211.32
Resistance Level
$228.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.07
Wall Street Target
$257.36
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1111.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$220.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$223.17
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$225.85
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$219.24
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 17.8%)
$789.38
(+262%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 17.8%)
$356.54
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 17.8%)
$303.06
(+39%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.47
Bull Case
$321.60
(+48%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$292.37
(+34%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$144.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-04-01
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1692 shares
2026-04-01
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Advanced COF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COF price and gamma walls.
