COF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COF - Capital One Financial
$209.01
-1.13 (-0.54%)
▼
5d:
+3.04%
30d:
+2.05%
90d:
+9.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: COF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: COF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$356.26
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$221.21
5.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COF is currently trading at $209.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.94 to $208.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $212.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.73 (+22.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COF is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $212.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $256.73 (+22.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$199.94 -
$208.71
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($256.73)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.94 -
$208.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$195.89
Resistance Level
$212.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.69
Wall Street Target
$256.73
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
46.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$208.59
(0%)
2-Year Target
$208.17
(0%)
3-Year Target
$207.76
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$208.01
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$833.54
(+299%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 18.7%)
$349.40
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 18.7%)
$296.99
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.28
Bull Case
$304.15
(+46%)
Analyst growth 31.6%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$276.50
(+32%)
Market implied 31.6%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$142.89
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$209.26
(+0.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Celia Karam
SELL
1099 shares
2026-04-01
Lia Dean
SELL
1692 shares
2026-04-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
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