DHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DHI - D.R. Horton Inc.
$148.35
1.02 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
-0.31%
30d:
+4.38%
90d:
+2.92%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $151.08 · last confirmed Aug 20, 2026
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: DHI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$210.89
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DHI is currently trading at $148.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.92 to $150.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.7) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DHI scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: DHI scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$144.92 -
$150.92
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($162.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with None% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.92 -
$150.92
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.17
Resistance Level
$154.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.69
Wall Street Target
$162.92
(+9.8%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$151.63
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$153.30
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$148.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 12.0%)
$329.76
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 12.0%)
$208.52
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$177.24
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.18
Bull Case
$186.09
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.8%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$169.17
(+14%)
Market implied 14.8%, PE stable at 14.5
Bear Case
$100.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DHI price and gamma walls.
