ELF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.
$63.99
2.84 (4.64%)
▲
5d:
+22.4%
30d:
+15.36%
90d:
-13.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ELF is 8.2% above its trading range ($59.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ELF is 8.2% above its trading range ($59.13). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$118.16
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$73.37
12.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ELF is currently trading at $63.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.91 to $59.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (20.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 116.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.75 (+12.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ELF is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $59.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: ELF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.75 (+12.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.91 -
$59.13
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ELF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($71.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$51.91 -
$59.13
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.82
Resistance Level
$59.77
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.75
Wall Street Target
$71.75
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
116.7%
Profit Margin
-0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 20.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.30
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$58.73
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$56.26
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$64.04
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$124.11
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 16.5%)
$101.13
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 16.5%)
$85.96
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 18.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.46
Bull Case
$77.27
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$63.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$48.95
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 20.2
Stabilization Target:
$72.83
(+13.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 16, 2026 1:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ELF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tarang Amin
SELL
52880 shares
2026-04-01
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