ERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERO - Ero Copper Corp.
$26.91
-0.14 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+3.58%
30d:
+4.63%
90d:
+4.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.2% annual earnings decline despite 35% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ERO appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.2% annual earnings decline despite 35% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.13
27.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $26.91, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.71 to $27.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.87 (+33.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.87 (+33.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.71 -
$27.26
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($35.87)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.71 -
$27.26
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.41
Resistance Level
$27.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.70
Wall Street Target
$35.87
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
110.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.1%
Profit Margin
31.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.78
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$24.70
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$23.66
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$27.00
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 25.4%)
$193.16
(+618%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 25.4%)
$53.08
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 25.4%)
$45.12
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.00
Bull Case
$46.86
(+74%)
Analyst growth 57.5%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$42.60
(+58%)
Market implied 57.5%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$18.39
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$30.71
(+14.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 8:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ERO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ERO price and gamma walls.
