ERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERO - Ero Copper Corp.
$39.42
3.40 (9.44%)
▲
5d:
+16.63%
30d:
+49.49%
90d:
+47.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ERO is 14.7% above its trading range ($34.38). Market expects 8.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: ERO is 14.7% above its trading range ($34.38). Market expects 8.1% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.40
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERO is currently trading at $39.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.20 to $34.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: ERO scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.20 -
$34.38
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
15.7%
Protect Your Profits
ERO is technically overbought (RSI 73). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.7% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($35.87)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 8.1% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.20 -
$34.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.84
Resistance Level
$39.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.24
Wall Street Target
$35.87
(-9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
73.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
29.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 6.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.61
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$46.06
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$49.80
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 19.1%)
$162.38
(+312%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 19.1%)
$66.66
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 19.1%)
$52.59
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$60.76
(+54%)
Analyst growth 53.3%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$55.23
(+40%)
Market implied 53.3%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$24.49
(-38%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ERO price and gamma walls.
