Fastenal (FAST) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$49.65
0.64 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
+0.42%
30d:
-1.99%
90d:
+7.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 14, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 17, 2026 at $49.18 · last confirmed Sep 21, 2026
Strength: 5.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FAST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FAST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.76
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $49.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.94 to $50.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.5) is in line with its historical norms (34.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FAST scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$48.94 -
$50.98
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.84)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.94 -
$50.98
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.06
Resistance Level
$49.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.52
Wall Street Target
$48.84
(-1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
35.5 vs 34.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.35
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$51.05
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$51.76
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$49.70
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.5, Growth: 10.7%)
$67.40
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$38.43
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$32.66
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.17
Bull Case
$64.41
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 46.1
Base Case
$58.55
(+18%)
Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 41.9
Bear Case
$33.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 22, 2026 5:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FAST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FAST price and gamma walls.
